(8 May 2016)
Election date
confirmed as 2 July, campaign is now officially underway
The Prime
Minister, Hon Malcolm Turnbull MP, has made a rain-soaked journey through
Canberra’s inner-southern suburbs to Government House at Yarralumla to make a
formal request to the Governor-General for a double-dissolution election on
Saturday, 2 July.
·
Mr
Turnbull is aiming to retain power for the Liberal Party-Nationals conservative
coalition, while the Leader of the Opposition, Hon Bill Shorten MP, will be
hoping to create history and lead the progressive Australian Labor Party back
into office after just one term in opposition. The last one-term government in
Australia was in 1929-1931.
·
As
many Australians are aware, Mr Turnbull forged a successful career as a
journalist, lawyer, founder of a large IT company and head of the Australian
Republican Movement before entering Parliament in 2004. He was a Minister in
the Howard Government and had an unsuccessful stint as Leader of the Opposition
from 2008-2009. Mr Shorten worked as a lawyer, political advisor and union leader
before entering Parliament in 2007. He was a Minister in the previous Labor
Government. Before entering politics, Mr Shorten attracted national headlines
as the union leader who assisted two workers who were trapped below ground (and
were eventually freed) when a mine collapsed in Tasmania almost exactly 10
years ago, in 2006.
·
It
will be Australia’s first double-dissolution election since 1987 (when Labor
was returned to office).
Key policy
issues
·
Coalition
– The economy
The
key message used by the Treasurer, Hon Scott Morrison MP, has and will continue
to be “jobs and growth”; the Federal Budget, which was handed down last
Tuesday, was described as a “national economic plan”.
·
Labor
– Education and health
Mr
Shorten will run hard on education and health, and is pushing the message he
will “put people first”, if elected to the top job.
The first
shots
Both leaders held
their first media conferences of the campaign a short time ago.
·
Speaking
in Canberra, Mr Turnbull emphasised the Coalition’s jobs and growth mantra,
saying a return to Labor would result in higher taxes and higher levels of
public debt. He pointed to recent major defence and employment announcements,
and the importance in the future of services industries, including tourism, and
agriculture.
·
Speaking
in Launceston, Tasmania, Mr Shorten signalled Labor’s clear attack points,
saying it is more united than the Coalition and Mr Turnbull made no reference
to climate change during his media conference. Mr Shorten said Labor will focus
on education, health and, as part of his climate change commitment, renewable
energy.
Opinion polls
and betting odds
After wresting
the prime ministership from Hon Tony Abbott MP in a leadership coup in
September 2015, Mr Turnbull enjoyed a honeymoon period in the polls until the
end of last year. The Coalition’s standing has since dropped away to the point
where a month ago, it fell behind Labor on a two-party preferred basis for the
first time since Mr Turnbull became leader (49-51).
·
The
most recent Newspoll, released on 18 April, showed the Coalition still trailing
Labor 49-51.
·
Mr
Turnbull has always held an edge over Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister
and although the 18 April Newspoll still had Mr Turnbull ahead 47 per cent to
28 as preferred prime minister, the gap is well down on the 39-point margin Mr
Turnbull had on this score at the beginning of 2016.
·
A
short time ago, bet365 listed the Coalition at $1.33 to win and Labor at $3.25.
Despite the
closeness of the polls on a two-party preferred basis, most commentators are
expecting the Coalition to win the election – but with a vastly reduced
majority (it currently holds 90 of the 150 seats in the House of
Representatives and Labor holds 55; the other five seats are held by minor
parties/independents). Despite this, Labor can
win the election. In essence, this means while the Coalition is favoured to
win, an upset is not out of the question.
What’s
different this time?
·
Double-dissolution
election – All 226 seats in of the House of Representatives and the Senate will
be decided at the upcoming election. At “normal” elections, only half of the
76-seat Senate is up for re-election. The double-dissolution election was triggered
because the Senate twice failed to pass legislation which would have reinstated
a “watchdog” for the building and construction industry.
·
Long
campaign – The election campaign will last for eight weeks, making it one of
the longest ever campaigns. Many are expecting this will work in favour of Mr
Shorten and Labor.
·
New
Senate voting rules – The election will be the first to take place under new
voting rules for the Senate. The new rules simplify the process of voters
filling out voting forms and minor parties are no longer able to swap
preferences to secure seats. The new rules will make it more difficult for
low-profile independents to win Senate seats.
Key
battlegrounds
The key
marginal seats where the election will be decided are, by and large, located in
north Queensland, outer-suburban Brisbane, northern NSW, the NSW Central Coast,
western Sydney, Tasmania, SA and WA. Not forgetting the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro. Since 1972, this regional NSW
electorate, which surrounds Canberra, has been held by the party which has
formed government.
·
WA
is the State to watch
The
Coalition holds all but three of the federal seats in WA, however the
conservative State Government is unpopular and with the federal Coalition set
to lose seats, the key Coalition-held marginals of Swan, Cowan and Hasluck
could be in doubt. A new, notional-Liberal seat (Burt) will add to the intrigue
in WA.
The X-factors
·
Former
Prime Minister, Mr Abbott
Mr
Abbott promised not to undermine Mr Turnbull’s leadership, but this hasn’t
stopped Mr Abbott from speaking publicly about policy issues he feels strongly
about, creating difficulties for Mr Turnbull. However, in the past few weeks,
Mr Abbott appears to have changed his messaging to underline the importance of
the Coalition being re-elected. Should the type of internal divisions which
sabotaged Labor’s 2010 election campaign after it removed a sitting prime
minister surface within the Coalition during the campaign, it could result in
the Coalition losing additional seats.
·
High-profile
Independent Senator Nick Xenophon
On
the strength of his enormous popularity in his home state of SA, Senator Nick
Xenophon is set to play a major role during and beyond this election campaign.
Under the banner of his new political party, the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT), he
will be re-elected and is set to be joined in the Senate by other NXT
candidates. There is a strong chance he could hold the balance of power in the
Senate in the next Parliament. He could even win a seat or seats in the House
of Representatives, most likely in SA.
How Senator
Xenophon distributes his preferences among the major parties will have a
significant bearing on the outcome of seats in SA.
Engagement
during the campaign
Engagement
between business and government during election campaigns is usually relatively
limited, with the exception of fundraising events and public appearances, however,
the unusually long campaign means things could be different in 2016. If a
campaign announcement directly impacts on business, then engagement could be
both necessary and possible. Given the heightened level of sensitivity which
exists in an election campaign environment, engagement – including any public
response by business to campaign announcements – must be even more carefully
considered and, as always, conducted in a strategic way.
The latest
“Guidance on Caretaker Conventions” which has been released by the Department
of the Prime Minister and Cabinet states:
“The business of government continues and ordinary
matters of administration still need to be addressed. However, successive
governments have followed a series of practices, known as the ‘caretaker
conventions’, which aim to ensure that their actions do not bind an incoming
government and limit its freedom of action. In summary, the conventions are
that the government avoids: making major policy decisions that are likely to
commit an incoming government; making significant appointments; and entering
major contracts or undertakings.”
Quotable
quote
In yesterday’s
“Weekend Australian” newspaper, a former Chief of Staff to Mr Turnbull, Chris
Kenny, highlighted the challenges facing the Coalition:
“The Government is defensive, ill-disciplined and vague.
If this doesn’t improve, the Coalition will lose.”
What’s next?
·
Major
announcements – The Federal Budget was very light-on for major spending
commitments for an election-year financial statement. Therefore, expect the
Government to make many significant funding announcements throughout the
campaign, particularly in key marginal seats.
·
Election
advertising – Election advertising will bombard our screens (including on the
internet and social media), radio programs and newspapers. Much of it will be
negative, i.e. it will focus on the deficiencies of the leaders and the
policies of the major parties.